Türkiye Plans Iran Border Buffer Zone if Government Falls

Türkiye is drawing up contingency plans to prevent a mass influx of refugees from Iran in the event of a collapse of the government in Tehran, Middle East Eye reported, citing officials familiar with closed-door briefings in parliament.

Senior Turkish foreign ministry officials briefed lawmakers this week on multiple scenarios involving Iran. According to participants, Ankara is prepared to take extraordinary measures to manage any potential migration before it reaches Turkish territory.

Buffer Zone Option Discussed

One participant said officials explicitly referred to a “buffer zone” on the Iranian side of the border as part of Türkiye’s preparations. Another source said the term was not directly used but confirmed that officials signalled a willingness to go beyond standard border controls.

“They believe everything possible should be done on the Iranian side to ensure that those who might flee remain there,” one source told Middle East Eye.

Reinforced Border Security

Türkiye has already significantly reinforced security along its 560-kilometre border with Iran. The defence ministry said earlier this month that Ankara has installed a technologically enhanced barrier system, including hundreds of surveillance towers, drones, aircraft monitoring and a modular concrete wall.

Officials said the border is now monitored around the clock through integrated reconnaissance and surveillance systems.

Unrest Inside Iran

During the same parliamentary briefing, Turkish officials reportedly told lawmakers that around 4,000 people had been killed and 20,000 wounded in recent protests across Iran, triggered by rapid inflation and the collapse of the rial.

While some protests involved violence, multiple investigations and video evidence indicate Iranian security forces used disproportionate force and imposed internet blackouts to suppress unrest, Middle East Eye reported.

US Military Build-Up Raises Alarm

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara opposes any foreign intervention in Iran and urged the United States to pursue diplomacy. However, Washington has been weighing potential strikes on senior Iranian officials, according to a Gulf official cited by Middle East Eye.

The US has recently deployed warplanes, air defence systems and warships to the region. On Monday, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier arrived in Middle Eastern waters, intensifying concerns in Ankara.

Refugee Sensitivities and Regional Risks

Türkiye remains highly sensitive to the prospect of new refugee flows after hosting millions displaced by conflicts in Iraq and Syria. Officials estimate that a full-scale conflict involving Iran could push up to one million refugees toward the Turkish border.

Sources told Middle East Eye that Ankara is unlikely to accept refugees except in cases of urgent humanitarian need and has abandoned any “open-door” policy. However, the presence of at least 12 million Azerbaijani Turks in Iran could complicate Ankara’s response if they arrive at the border in large numbers.