North Korea Expands Missiles and Drones Program With Russian Support

North and South Korea are accelerating competing weapons programs, with rival missile tests underscoring how Pyongyang’s military partnership with Russia is strengthening its ability to threaten the South.

North Korea is improving missile accuracy, developing heavier warheads and expanding drone production.

Its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has provided combat experience and weapons-performance data that are helping drive those advances.

Seoul is responding with new strike systems and a pledge to increase defense spending, as cheaper North Korean attack weapons threaten to impose increasingly expensive demands on its defenses.

Rival Missile Tests

The competition sharpened this month when North Korea tested a ballistic missile it described as nuclear-capable and hypersonic, with Kim Jong-un observing the launch.

South Korean and Japanese officials estimated its range at about 430 miles.

Pyongyang claimed 621 miles, saying the warhead’s irregular movements at several times the speed of sound had prevented them from tracking its full flight.

Five days later, South Korea conducted its first hypersonic ballistic missile test, watched by President Lee Jae-myung.

The launch went beyond Seoul’s customary statements condemning North Korean tests.

Lee’s office also released a photograph of him inspecting the Hyunmoo-5, which reportedly carries an eight-ton warhead designed to penetrate underground shelters and target enemy leaders.

Four days after that inspection, North Korea launched a weapon analysts identified as its own bunker-buster missile, capable of carrying a 2.5-ton payload.

The exchanges followed renewed friction along the border.

Three South Korean soldiers were injured last month by mines that Seoul says North Korea planted south of the poorly defined boundary.

Warning shots and threats followed.

Russia’s Battlefield Dividends

North Korea’s deployment of weapons and soldiers to support Russia has given it opportunities to assess equipment under combat conditions and improve its tactics.

Anton Ponomarenko, a Pacific Forum researcher, said battlefield feedback had helped Pyongyang improve warhead accuracy and maneuverability, making the danger to South Korea more substantial.

Drone warfare is another priority. Ukrainian officials say Russia recruited 12,000 North Korean workers for Geran-2 drone factories in Tatarstan and sent officers to North Korea to train operators.

Photographs from Kim’s visit to a drone factory last month indicated that mass production had begun.

In a separate exercise, North Korean drones attacked an island target while cruise and ballistic missiles approached from different directions.

Such coordinated attacks could force South Korea and its allies to overhaul air defenses at considerable expense, defense experts said.

“We will see a deepening imbalance between low-cost attacks and high-cost defenses,” said Hong Min, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

Seoul’s Deterrence Challenge

North Korea has also worked to make its missiles harder to locate and destroy, using submarine launches, mobile systems concealed in tunnels, and solid fuel that reduces preparation time.

Its ability to equip some missiles with either conventional or nuclear warheads adds uncertainty for South Korean commanders assessing a launch.

Seoul relies on U.S. forces and the American nuclear arsenal to deter nuclear attack.

Its own buildup centers on conventional capabilities supporting pre-emptive strikes, missile interception and large-scale retaliation.

“Using them offensively would ensure the North’s self-destruction,” Lee said of North Korea’s nuclear weapons in an interview with The New York Times last month.

South Korea retains superiority in air and naval forces and coordinates surveillance with Washington. But North Korea’s advances are narrowing some gaps, while recent South Korean drone tests have suffered failures.

Seoul has pledged to lift defense expenditure from 2.8% to 3.5% of gross domestic product.

A further risk lies beyond the peninsula.

Lami Kim of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Russian assistance enabling North Korea to strike American cities with nuclear warheads could make Washington more reluctant to defend the South.