NATO leaders are gathering in The Hague under heavy political and strategic pressure, as U.S. President Donald Trump demands sweeping increases in defense budgets. Facing potential rupture within the alliance and ongoing crisis in the Middle East, the summit is poised to unveil a record rise in military spending.

Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary General, labeled the gathering “historic,” aiming to contain fallout from U.S. airstrikes on Iran and fears of American disengagement from European defense.

Trump Pushes for 5% Defense Spending

Since returning to the White House, Trump has intensified demands for allies to contribute at least 5% of their GDP to defense. While the summit won’t fully endorse that figure, the 32 member states have agreed on a compromise: by 2035, 3.5% will go toward core military expenditure, with an additional 1.5% allocated to broader security areas such as cybersecurity and military mobility.

Rutte welcomed this “leap forward” on Monday. Still, reaching even 3.5% will represent a substantial financial burden for many European nations, several of which are still struggling to meet the earlier 2% target set in 2014.

Europe Insists on Russia as Core Threat

While the U.S. pushed for a narrow focus on budget commitments, European powers are pressing to keep the threat from Russia front and center. In a joint op-ed for the Financial Times, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz wrote, “Europe must rearm not because someone tells us to, but because it is our responsibility to our citizens.”

They emphasized Russia remains the “main source of instability,” calling for increased sanctions and pressure to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also committed to the 5% defense goal, stating, “We must navigate this era of extreme uncertainty with agility, speed, and national purpose.”

Ukraine Kept at Arm’s Length

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the summit only as a guest of King Willem-Alexander, not as an official participant. This symbolic sidelining reflects U.S. hesitation to let Ukraine dominate the agenda. A brief encounter between Zelensky and Trump may take place during the gala dinner, though no formal meeting is scheduled.

Still, NATO plans to reaffirm support for Ukraine in the summit’s final declaration. According to Rutte, allied aid to Kyiv this year already amounts to roughly €35 billion.

Uncertainties Linger Over Alliance Future

Despite the summit's structured choreography, observers warn that Trump's unpredictability could upend proceedings. His abrupt exit from last week’s G7 meeting in Canada lingers in memory.

“If the summit goes more or less normally, it will be a success,” said Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “But unresolved questions remain—and the Russia-Ukraine knot won’t be cut in The Hague. Yet it’s what drives Europe to spend more.”