U.S. allies across Europe and Canada are questioning their dependence on American weapons as they undertake the largest defense buildup in decades, driven by fears over Washington’s reliability under Donald Trump’s leadership.

American Arms, Political Risks

As European nations approve record defense budgets—potentially reaching €14 trillion including infrastructure—leaders like Emmanuel Macron and Canada’s Mark Carney are calling for greater self-sufficiency. “We should no longer send three-quarters of our defense capital spending to America,” said Carney, who has floated Sweden’s Gripen fighter over the U.S.-made F-35.

Trump’s outreach to Russia, threats to NATO unity, and a brief suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine have amplified allied concerns. The Pentagon had to publicly reassure that the F-35 cannot be remotely disabled—a fear that’s now politically salient.

Supply Chains, Capabilities, and Dependence

Despite political resolve, Europe’s fragmented defense sector lacks the scale and technology to meet urgent military needs independently. “There’s not enough production, there’s not enough design,” said Tuure Lehtoranta of Finnish defense-tech firm Insta.

European firms cannot rival U.S. dominance in strategic areas like missile defense, high-performance aircraft, satellite-guided targeting, and air refueling. NATO sources admit that fulfilling alliance goals without U.S. platforms is currently impossible.

Strategic Realignments and Market Shifts

Nevertheless, momentum is building. Saab CEO Micael Johansson noted a shift toward European systems, while Airbus and Dassault’s public feud over future fighter projects underscores the race for leadership. Meanwhile, U.S. giants like Northrop Grumman are pursuing joint ventures in Germany, Denmark, and Norway to stay competitive.

Canada is openly considering leaving the F-35 program. Denmark, still reeling from Trump’s Greenland annexation threats, has called U.S. arms a “security risk.”

Transformation, Not Replacement—Yet

The U.S. remains indispensable for now, but European firms are rapidly gaining traction. Defense stocks across Europe are soaring—outpacing even U.S. peers. While Europe pushes for sovereignty in defense production, pragmatic cooperation is expected to continue. As Lehtoranta said: “We cannot survive without the U.S. industries.”