Rebalancing the Security Burden

The Mar-a-Lago meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky marked a deliberate shift in how postwar security for Ukraine is being framed. While both leaders emphasized progress toward ending a war nearing its fourth year, Trump made clear that Europe would be expected to carry most of the long-term security responsibility, with the United States acting as facilitator rather than sole guarantor.

Asked whether Washington would provide security guarantees, Trump said the burden would fall “largely” on Europe. He argued that the war carries more direct consequences for European states, citing geography and exposure. “The Atlantic Ocean protects us,” Trump said, adding that the conflict is “very important” for Europe’s own security. He stressed that the United States would continue working with allies but framed Ukraine’s future defense as a European imperative.

“Closer Than Ever,” But Not Finished

Trump and Zelensky both publicly highlighted progress on a 20-point draft peace plan. Trump said negotiators had resolved “95% of the issues,” while Zelensky stated that more than “90%” of the framework had been agreed. The figures mirror comments made earlier this month when Ukrainian officials described the proposal as “about 90% ready,” underscoring a shared narrative of momentum.

Trump said he believed both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin want peace, calling the negotiations complex but unprecedented in their scope. “We are closer than we have ever been,” he said, while cautioning that talks could still collapse over unresolved provisions. He acknowledged that a single issue could still derail the process, describing the negotiations as “very detailed” and difficult.

Territory and the Donbas Constraint

Despite progress, both sides identified territory as the central unresolved issue. Trump said the status of Russian-occupied land remains contentious, describing it as “a very tough issue” that still lacks agreement. Zelensky echoed that assessment, saying Ukraine and Russia hold fundamentally different positions on the future of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s position was outlined separately by Yuri Ushakov, a senior foreign affairs adviser to Putin, who said that a “complete cessation” of hostilities would require a “bold, responsible, political decision” from Kyiv on Donbas and other disputed areas. Ushakov said the Trump–Putin phone call, which lasted two-and-a-half hours and was initiated by the U.S. side, was “friendly, benevolent and businesslike,” and confirmed that the two leaders agreed to speak again “promptly.”

Infrastructure and the January Window

The talks also addressed strategic infrastructure. Trump raised the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, saying it had not been damaged by Russian forces and was “in very good condition” and could be restarted quickly. The plant’s status remains symbolically and operationally significant given its location near active front lines.

Zelensky said Trump had agreed to provide security guarantees in principle and confirmed that European leaders would meet with Trump again, possibly in Washington, in January. Leaders from the European Commission, Finland, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Poland were briefed following the talks. Trump said the next meeting could take place at the White House or another venue, leaving the format open as negotiators attempt to resolve the remaining gaps.