Planning Scale Exceeds Khartoum

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are framing their renewed military effort in Kordofan and Darfur as a step-change in scope and preparation, explicitly comparing it to the recapture of Khartoum state in March last year. The army said planning for a full operation to “liberate” central and western Sudan would surpass the capital campaign, signaling a heavier concentration of formations, air power, and sequencing. The assessment phase, according to the military, has focused on the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) capabilities and resources across two vast theaters that together span much of Sudan’s west and center.

According to reports from Khartoum by Al Jazeera, the army is making visible preparatory moves in reorganising and redeploying troops in various parts of Kordofan in addition to retaking control of territories in the region. Several RSF positions in Darfur and Kordofan have reportedly been targeted by air strikes and drone attacks which seem to be the first steps of the alleged offensive.

“First steps of that offensive”

Operational claims have followed. On Friday, the SAF said it inflicted heavy losses during air and ground operations in both regions, asserting the destruction of about 240 combat vehicles and the killing of hundreds of RSF fighters. Ground forces, the military said, pushed RSF units out of wide areas and were pursuing remaining elements. Darfur Governor Minni Arko Minnawi linked recent SAF action in Kordofan to the prevention of an RSF siege of el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan.

On the ground, however, reassurance remains limited. Reports note that residents want demonstrable withdrawals of the RSF enabling returns to homes after the widespread displacement, which still hasn’t materialized.

Attrition, Airpower, and Civilians

Fighting continues across multiple fronts. On Monday, a drone attack attributed to the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, an RSF ally, killed five people in Habila in South Kordofan state. The RSF’s recent resurgence in Darfur and Kordofan has displaced millions more, compounding a humanitarian emergency that has intensified as the war passed its 1,000th day since April 2023.

The United Nations has accused both sides of war crimes and crimes against humanity, with the RSF implicated in atrocities in Darfur that may amount to genocide. After gaining access to el-Fasher, capital of North Darfur state, for the first time since the RSF seized it in October, the UN described the city as a “crime scene.” More than 100,000 residents fled el-Fasher after October 26, following an 18-month siege marked by mass atrocities, ethnically motivated killings, and widespread detentions. Aid staff visiting after weeks of negotiations found few people remaining in what had been a densely populated city hosting large displaced communities.

Government Returns, War Continues

Against this backdrop, Sudan’s Prime Minister Kamil Idris announced on Sunday the government’s return to Khartoum after nearly three years operating from Port Sudan. “Today, we return, and the government of hope returns to the national capital,” Idris said. The move follows the army’s recapture of the capital and a gradual administrative return, even as combat shifts westward.

The broader toll remains stark. Nongovernmental organizations said more than 33 million people are being pushed toward starvation by fighting and global funding cuts. The conflict has displaced 11 million people internally and abroad, creating what aid groups describe as the world’s largest displacement and hunger crisis.