Russia Preparing for Potential New Round of Military Mobilization

Russian military officers have tested preparations for mobilizing residents of Kaliningrad, examining how recruits would be housed, fed, and armed in the Baltic exclave, according to Western intelligence officials.

Officers traveled from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad last month to oversee the exercise. The officials said similar readiness planning is underway across Russia in case the Kremlin orders another round of mobilization, according to The Wall Street Journal.

No decision has yet been taken. Western officials said any move would probably come only after parliamentary elections in late September.

Kaliningrad Under Review

The exercise puts Kaliningrad at the center of Moscow’s preparations for a possible expansion of military manpower.

The Russian territory lies between Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members, and is separated from the rest of Russia.

Western intelligence officials have also warned that it could play a role in any future escalation involving the Suwalki Gap, the narrow stretch of territory between Kaliningrad and Belarus.

Russia has long treated the exclave as both a strategic foothold and a vulnerability because of its geography and small population.

The Kremlin and Russia’s Defense Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Manpower Pressures Mount

The planning comes as Russia struggles to recruit enough soldiers to replace troops killed and wounded on the battlefield.

U.S. and European officials said those shortages could leave Vladimir Putin with little choice but to authorize another mobilization as Moscow continues its effort to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donbas.

A new call-up could reinforce Russian positions and support operations toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. But its immediate impact could be limited if troops are mobilized only shortly before winter slows fighting.

“I don’t think it’ll prove decisive for Russia, and it’s actually too late this year, but it could be a factor for 2027,” said Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

“If they have concrete timetables for objectives they want to accomplish this year, like seizing the rest of the Donbas, then they should have mobilized several months ago.”

Echoes of 2022

Russia’s previous mobilization in September 2022 triggered widespread disruption.

Hundreds of thousands of men left the country, airline tickets sold rapidly and long queues formed at crossings into Georgia and Kazakhstan.

Recent rumors of another call-up have renewed concern. Some Russian men have searched online for possible exit routes, while others with the means to travel have explored destinations where they could remain if mobilization is announced.

Russia’s Customs Service said more than 20,000 people crossed the Verkhny Lars checkpoint with Georgia in a single day last week, although Georgia’s Interior Ministry disputed the figure.

A More Gradual Call-Up

Russia still officially describes military recruitment as voluntary, though authorities have increasingly used coercion, manipulation and violence to raise troop numbers.

Changes to military records could also allow the Kremlin to avoid the abrupt approach seen in 2022.

Russia has compiled a database of military-age men eligible to serve and has begun issuing electronic notifications requiring some to report to recruitment offices. Authorities could expand those notices gradually rather than announce one large mobilization.

“It’s easier for them to cook the frog slowly, calling people up in small numbers,” said Alexey Yusupov of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. “There would be nothing compared to 2022.”

A mass call-up would nevertheless carry economic costs by removing workers from an already tight labor market while increasing spending on pay, housing, food and equipment.

“Russia would be further mortgaging its future for the sake of military gains,” said Alexander Kolyandr of Eurasia Group.