Israel has raised concerns with the Trump administration over a missile drill conducted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warning that the exercise could conceal preparations for an attack. The alert comes amid heightened regional sensitivity and ahead of a planned meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Missile Movements Trigger Concern

According to Israeli and US sources, recent intelligence points to force movements linked to an IRGC missile exercise. While the information does not confirm an imminent strike, Israeli officials say their tolerance for risk has sharply declined since the Hamas-led surprise attack on October 7, 2023.

Israeli intelligence had flagged similar missile movements roughly six weeks ago, but no escalation followed. This time, officials say they are unwilling to dismiss the activity as routine training, even as assessments put the likelihood of an Iranian attack below 50%.

US intelligence, however, has told counterparts that there are currently no signs of an imminent Iranian strike.

Military-to-Military Coordination

Behind the scenes, Israel’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, contacted the head of US Central Command, Adm. Brad Cooper, to convey Israel’s concerns. Zamir warned that missile drills and other operational steps could serve as cover for a surprise attack and urged close coordination on defensive preparations.

Cooper traveled to Tel Aviv on Sunday for meetings with Zamir and senior Israel Defense Forces officials to review the situation. Neither the IDF nor CENTCOM offered public comment.

Risk of Miscalculation

Security officials on both sides fear that the most significant danger lies in miscalculation. Sources say tensions could escalate rapidly if either Israel or Iran misreads the other’s intentions and attempts a preemptive move, potentially triggering a broader conflict.

Netanyahu–Trump Talks in Focus

Netanyahu is expected to meet President Trump on December 29 in Miami. Israeli officials say the prime minister plans to discuss Iran’s efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile capabilities and the possibility of renewed Israeli action against Iran in 2026.

Israeli intelligence believes Iran has begun rebuilding its missile arsenal after losses suffered in a brief war in June, though capabilities have not returned to pre-war levels. Iran is estimated to have around 1,500 missiles remaining, down from roughly 3,000, and about half of its previous number of launchers.

While Israeli military intelligence and the Mossad assess that Iran’s rebuilding pace does not require immediate military action in the next few months, they warn the issue could become more urgent later in the year, keeping Iran at the top of Israel’s strategic agenda.