In the Sudan file, prepared under the editorial guidance of Recep Yiğit and with contributions from leading experts—including Dr. Yassir Youssif Ibrahim, Dr. Serhat Orakçı, Dr. Tarig Mohammed Nour Ali, and Assist. Prof. Tunç Demirtaş—the conflict is analyzed as a full-scale state collapse. A fragmented security sector and a thriving war economy now shape the trajectory of the war.

Security Fragmentation and RSF Rise

Sudan’s collapse stems from decades of deliberate security decentralization, with militias and intelligence units operating outside unified command structures. RSF grew into a 100,000–120,000-strong force by 2023, drawing power from Jebel Amer gold fields and external deployments, including operations in Yemen.

The report says RSF’s economic autonomy—secured through gold revenues and foreign financial channels—enabled it to build a parallel chain of command rivaling the army. By 2017, legal reforms granted RSF formal status, consolidating control over recruitment and revenue streams.

War Economy and Social Breakdown

The document highlights expansion of Sudan’s war economy across logistics, mining, taxation, and cross-border smuggling networks. It notes that 30.4 million people require aid and around 13 million have been displaced, marking one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Food insecurity escalated, with 45% of the population in acute need and at least 20 locations nearing famine conditions. The report adds that 90% of school-age children are out of education, reflecting systemic collapse of social institutions.

Regional Actors and External Leverage

The report links RSF’s financial resilience to regional relationships shaping battlefield dynamics and political leverage. Gold flows and foreign support reinforced RSF autonomy, enabling sustained operations across Khartoum, Darfur, and Kordofan.

It says regional actors influence the duration and shape of the conflict, creating a layered contest involving economic corridors, port access, and security patronage networks. These dynamics hardened frontlines and limited prospects for de-escalation.

Four Scenarios Ahead

The report outlines four paths: prolonged fragmentation, army re-centralization, a negotiated settlement with structural reforms, or a regionally supervised transition tied to economic stabilization. Each scenario depends on shifts in battlefield balance, external pressure, and restructuring of gold-based revenue channels.

Timelines vary, but the report stresses that without deep security-sector reform—roles, mandates, and command hierarchy—no durable political settlement is possible.