Silo Deployment Accelerates

China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) across three newly built silo fields, according to a draft Pentagon report cited by Reuters. The assessment marks the first time the U.S. Department of Defense has estimated how many missiles may have been placed inside the silos, which are located near China’s border with Mongolia. The missiles identified are solid-fueled DF-31 ICBMs, a core component of China’s land-based nuclear deterrent.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the draft, and U.S. officials cautioned that details could change before the report is formally submitted to Congress. Beijing has previously acknowledged the construction of silo fields but has rejected U.S. characterizations of its nuclear buildup, saying such reports are intended to “smear and defame China.”

Arms Control Gap Widens

The draft report states that Beijing shows no interest in arms control discussions, despite public remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump last month suggesting he might pursue denuclearization talks with both China and Russia. “We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report said.

China’s embassy in Washington said Beijing maintains a defensive nuclear posture, keeps its forces at the minimum level required for national security, and adheres to a moratorium on nuclear testing. China also reiterates its long-standing no-first-use policy, according to official statements.

Warhead Numbers and Timelines

According to the Pentagon assessment, China’s nuclear warhead stockpile remained in the low 600s in 2024, reflecting a slower production rate compared with previous years. Even so, the report says China is on track to exceed 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has described China as expanding and modernizing its nuclear forces faster than any other nuclear-armed state.

The report was released less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, which caps U.S. and Russian deployments at 1,550 strategic warheads on 700 delivery systems. The treaty was extended for five years in February 2021 but cannot be formally renewed. Analysts warn its expiration could accelerate a three-way nuclear arms race.

Broader Military Ambitions

Beyond nuclear forces, the Pentagon report assesses that China aims to be capable of fighting and winning a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027. It says Beijing is refining options ranging from a direct assault to long-range strikes extending 1,500–2,000 nautical miles from the Chinese mainland. In sufficient volume, the report warns, such strikes could significantly disrupt U.S. forces operating in the Asia-Pacific region.

The document also notes that President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has reached deep into the People’s Liberation Army and the defense industry. At least 26 senior and former executives at state-owned arms companies have been investigated or removed in the past 18 months. While the purge may affect short-term readiness, the Pentagon says it could enable longer-term structural improvements across China’s military establishment.