African Farmers Desperate as Hormuz Crisis Halts Fertilizer Supply

Farming communities in Africa and worldwide are in desperation as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz choke fertilizer flows, exposing the fragility of food production systems tied to energy and trade routes.

Tehran’s near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor handling about 20% of global oil shipments and nearly 30% of fertilizer trade, has triggered sharp increases in gas prices and constrained key agricultural inputs.

Nitrogen-based fertilizers, especially urea, are the most affected, with around 30% of global urea trade disrupted, according to CRU Group.

Carl Skau of the World Food Program warned: “In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season.”

Fertilizer production is tightly linked to energy markets. Liquefied natural gas, a core input for nitrogen fertilizers, has surged in price, compounding supply disruptions caused by shipping constraints.

“The fertilizer isn’t there,” said economist Raj Patel, pointing to immediate shortages during planting cycles.

Phosphate supplies are also under strain, with Saudi Arabia producing roughly 20% of global output and the region accounting for over 40% of sulfur exports.

The disruption coincides with critical planting windows in the Northern Hemisphere and parts of Asia. Fertilizers must be applied early in crop cycles, and delays can reduce yields even if supplies later recover.

In the United States, some are switching to less fertilizer-intensive crops, while in Europe, producers report urgent demand for nitrogen inputs.

“Our crops… need nitrogen now,” said German farmer Dirk Peters, emphasizing time sensitivity.

Countries heavily dependent on Gulf imports are most exposed. Ethiopia sources more than 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer via Djibouti, while African farmers face narrow weather windows for application.

In Kenya, even short delays can cut maize yields by about 4% per season. Stephen Muchiri, representing 25 million smallholders, warned of tightening timelines due to rainfall patterns.

India, which has allocated $12.7 billion for urea subsidies, is prioritizing domestic supply, though some plants remain below capacity.

Alternative suppliers face constraints. China is prioritizing domestic demand and may not resume exports until May, while Russian plants are operating near full capacity.

Even if the conflict eases, shipping through Hormuz may remain costly and risky. Analysts note that insurance premiums and security guarantees will shape recovery timelines.

“The food system is fragile,” said Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International, underscoring the dependence on stable fertilizer supply chains.