“Russia can have around five million drones, so we need to have capacities bigger than those in order to prevail,” Kubilius said, warning that an assault ordered by President Putin would face a “battle-tested” Russian army backed by vast drone numbers.

Lessons from Ukraine

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine “sparked a revolution in drone warfare,” with Kyiv’s drone units responsible for roughly 80 percent of Russian frontline losses. Along a 1,200 km front—nicknamed “Death Valley”—“nothing can move. Everything is controlled by drones. A traditional tank in that zone survives six minutes,” Kubilius recounted.

Scalable Production Teams

Rather than amassing obsolete stock, Kubilius proposes building teams of pilots, engineers and producers trained to “scale up production should the time come.” He noted that if Ukrainians need four million drones for a 1,200 km front, Lithuania would require about three million for its 900 km border.

Industry and Innovation

German start-up STARK’s senior vice president Josef Kranawetvogl demonstrates loitering munitions that “plug in the rudders” without tools, highlighting “two or three week” development cycles. Alpine Eagle’s CEO Jan-Hendrik Boelens warns NATO procured only “100, maybe 200” drones last year—enough for barely an hour of Ukrainian-level consumption. Both urge speeding up procurement.

Background
Military intelligence suggests Russia could strike a NATO country within five years. In response, the EU approved a €150 billion loan scheme in May to bolster defence production across the bloc, and Germany has signed contracts for large drone quantities—though it, too, agrees scalable production teams outpace stockpiles.