According to officials familiar with the plan, the European Commission is preparing to propose the fund as part of the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), covering the 2028–2034 period. If adopted by member states, the package would continue the EU’s policy of supplying Ukraine with grants and concessional loans, tied to reforms in governance, anti-corruption, and legal institutions—all benchmarks for eventual EU membership.

The proposed fund is designed to kick in as the current €50 billion facility runs out in 2027. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, the EU has already provided nearly €160 billion in various forms of assistance. The new commitment would be the most ambitious and institutionalised form of long-term support so far.

The plan is expected to be outlined in more detail when the Commission unveils its full budget proposal on July 16. EU officials say the initiative is still being refined but has gained traction as confidence in U.S. consistency under Trump’s leadership declines.

Trump Freeze Prompts European Recalibration

The proposal follows a temporary freeze in U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine ordered by President Donald Trump, who cited concerns over depleted stockpiles and domestic readiness. Although the U.S. later resumed limited deliveries, the episode triggered renewed urgency in Europe to take more responsibility.

“The Trump administration’s unpredictability has shifted the center of gravity toward Europe,” one EU diplomat said. “We can no longer assume the U.S. will be there when we need it.”

Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis emphasized the EU’s readiness to support Ukraine “for as long as it’s needed,” adding that Brussels is also exploring ways to use proceeds from immobilized Russian central bank assets to contribute to Kyiv’s budget.

The EU and G7 have already created a $50 billion loan mechanism based on such proceeds, but legal and technical complexities remain regarding its long-term use.

Addressing Defense Gaps and Economic Risks

The Commission has also warned EU finance ministers that Ukraine’s budget needs will likely extend well beyond 2027. An €8.4 billion increase in defense-related spending is projected for 2025 alone, with the expectation that member states will shoulder most of this burden directly through national budgets.

Officials are concerned that a prolonged war, weakened international engagement, and a fragile global economy could result in a budget gap. This has led to discussions about building a more predictable, long-term financial architecture for Ukraine that can survive electoral cycles and geopolitical shifts.

In parallel, the EU is seeking ways to link funding to concrete benchmarks—ensuring accountability while encouraging reform. These include public procurement transparency, judiciary independence, and decentralization reforms—all part of Ukraine’s EU accession roadmap.

Symbolic and Strategic Move for Europe

The proposed €100 billion fund marks more than just a fiscal tool—it represents a political statement of Europe’s strategic autonomy and its commitment to Ukraine’s future. As Brussels reorients itself toward becoming the guarantor of Ukrainian resilience, it also reinforces the EU’s evolving role as a geopolitical actor in its own right.

With NATO unity tested and Washington’s position uncertain, the EU is signaling that Ukraine’s survival—and by extension, the defense of democratic values on the continent—will not depend on any single partner.