Sudan’s brutal civil war is spilling into neighboring Libya and Egypt, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) making gains in the north and drawing deeper regional entanglement that threatens to escalate the conflict beyond Sudan’s borders.

RSF Advances Bolstered by Haftar’s Militias

The RSF has advanced into Sudan’s strategic “triangle” area near the Libyan-Egyptian border, overrunning the Chevrolet garrison with help from eastern Libyan militias loyal to General Khalifa Haftar. Haftar, an ally of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has allowed the RSF to operate smuggling routes and training camps in southern Libya.

UN sources confirm Haftar’s role in facilitating fuel, weapons, and vehicles into Darfur—a region now under intensified RSF operations.

Foreign Powers Fuel the Flames

Multiple external actors are sustaining the conflict. The UAE is arming the RSF, with quiet support from Chad, South Sudan, and Kenya. Meanwhile, Egypt backs the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) with reported air support, and Russia, Iran, have sold weapons.

Despite SAF’s March recapture of Khartoum, the war remains unresolved, with RSF offensives now threatening Sudan’s Northern region—one of the few relatively untouched zones of the country.

Egypt Hesitant, Türkiye Watches Haftar

While the RSF’s proximity to the Egyptian border may pressure Cairo to act, analysts say Egypt is unlikely to escalate due to financial dependence on the UAE, which provided $35 billion in aid in 2024. Turkey, a regional rival of Haftar, could increase military support for SAF if Libyan involvement grows.

“The region is balancing on a knife’s edge of proxy warfare,” said Kholood Khair of Confluence Advisory.

Humanitarian Toll and Warnings of Protracted War

According to a forthcoming Lancet Global Health study, between 12,600 and 58,700 people were killed in Khartoum state alone between April 2023 and June 2024. Thousands more have died from starvation, disease, or unrecorded violence.

As foreign actors dig deeper into the conflict, the prospects for peace in Sudan grow more distant—raising fears of a prolonged and increasingly regional war.