Russia’s military advances in Ukraine have slowed sharply in 2025 despite President Vladimir Putin’s confident rhetoric, according to battlefield data analyzed by Bloomberg. Since January, Russian troops have seized less than a quarter percent (0.15%) of Ukrainian territory. The pace of advance in eastern Ukraine has halved compared to late 2024.

Despite manpower superiority, Russia has failed to take full control of Donetsk, the region facing the heaviest fighting for over a decade. Analysts say Moscow is achieving only “localized breakthroughs.”

Trump Pullback Shifts Diplomatic Calculus

The slowdown on the ground contrasts with growing diplomatic momentum in Moscow’s favor. In a recent call, President Trump backed off from pressuring Putin on sanctions or a ceasefire, signaling to European leaders that he believed Russia was winning. The shift has unsettled allies, who fear the U.S. may be abandoning its leverage.

Experts warn that Trump’s retreat undermines Western unity and weakens Ukraine’s negotiating position.

Ukraine Struggles as Russia Eyes Long War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy emphasized U.S. influence as vital to deterring Putin. “It is America that Russia fears,” he said. Yet with U.S. support potentially waning, Kyiv’s ability to maintain defense lines is increasingly dependent on Europe.

Russia, meanwhile, is advancing at a cost—about 41 square kilometers per week—but sustaining operations beyond 2026 may require forced mobilization, which carries domestic risks for the Kremlin.