Trump's Africa Strategy Under Skepticism as African Union Summit Convenes

The 39th African Union summit opened with an unusual dynamic: the central actor was absent but structurally decisive. Policy changes by U.S. President Donald Trump now shape economic, diplomatic and security calculations for the bloc’s 55 members more than any formal agenda item.

Strategic Autonomy Under Pressure

Researchers describe a recalibration rather than a rupture. Carlos Lopes of the University of Cape Town said to Al Jazeera “US policy toward Africa has introduced a degree of uncertainty.”

The shift moves from multilateral development programs toward “a more transactional, security- and deal-focused approach.”

The White House policy document spans 29 pages yet devotes only three paragraphs to Africa. It emphasizes countering Chinese influence, conflict mediation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan, and replacing the “foreign aid paradigm” with an investment model linked to market access and resource cooperation.

Aid Architecture Dismantled

The economic impact is immediate because the United States previously provided about 26 percent of foreign aid to the continent. By 2024, U.S. direct investment reached $47.47bn, much channeled through the U.S. Agency for International Development. Its dismantling disrupted health programs across multiple states.

Belinda Archibong of Johns Hopkins SAIS said “we have experienced the end of USAID,” adding it caused “huge, detrimental negative impacts” in the short term.

The Center for Global Development estimates the cuts could contribute to between 500,000 and 1,000,000 deaths annually.

HIV services under PEPFAR - credited with saving 25 million lives - faced interruptions.

Washington has instead negotiated at least 16 bilateral public health arrangements with Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mozambique and Kenya under the “America First global health strategy.”

Tariff Shock And Trade Hedging

Trade policy compounds the pressure. In April, 20 countries faced tariffs between 11 percent and 50 percent, while another 29 received a baseline 10 percent levy. Lesotho initially faced a 50 percent tariff, Madagascar 47 percent, both later reduced to 15 percent. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) - covering 1,800 duty-free products - now runs only until the end of 2026.

Normative Actor Vs Deals

Everisto Benyera of the University of South Africa described the president as the “proverbial elephant in the room,” adding leaders would pursue “strategic ambiguity” to preserve negotiating space.

Diplomatic posture reflects a balancing strategy. Governments strengthen ties with China, Gulf states and European partners while maintaining U.S. engagement. Several states simultaneously condemned global conflicts and pursued bilateral security cooperation with Washington.

In the words of Zimbabwe’s president Emmerson Mnangagwa, “Africa doesn’t need to please the West or the East.”

Lopes said the summit would emphasize international law and consistency, noting Africa increasingly sees itself “as a normative actor on the global stage.”

The approach attempts parallel goals: leverage competition among major powers while avoiding dependence on any single partner.