Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are meeting today in Alaska for their first direct talks since Trump returned to the White House, aiming to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine’s 3½-year war — the deadliest in Europe since World War Two. The closed-door summit, staged at a Cold War-era air base, has heightened anxiety in Kyiv and across European capitals. Many fear that Trump, eager for a diplomatic win, might accept terms that effectively lock in Russia’s territorial gains and leave Ukraine’s sovereignty compromised. For Trump, the talks offer the chance to brand himself as a global peacemaker; for Putin, they are already a diplomatic victory, breaking years of Western efforts to isolate Moscow.

A U.S. Gamble for a Truce

Trump has cast the war as a “bloodbath” with escalating risks, positioning himself as the one to end it. Early in his second term, he threatened tariffs on Russian crude buyers — mainly China and India — and warned of “very severe consequences” if Moscow refused to engage. After initial backchannel exchanges through special envoy Steve Witkoff, the Alaska meeting emerged as the first step toward a broader negotiation process, potentially followed by a three-way summit including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

While Trump once claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours, he now concedes the situation is “tougher than expected.” His stated aim in Alaska is to “set the table” for subsequent talks rather than announce a final agreement.

Russia’s Conditions for Peace

Diplomatic sources suggest Putin may be prepared to freeze the war along current front lines — Russia now controls roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory — if NATO pledges not to expand eastward and if some Western sanctions are lifted.

Past Russian proposals, including those presented in June, have been more sweeping:

• Ukrainian withdrawal from Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
• Formal renunciation of NATO membership and neutrality status enshrined in law.
• International recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of Donbas.
• A cap on the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and official status for the Russian language.

While Putin has publicly insisted on verification mechanisms for any ceasefire, some Kremlin insiders note Russia’s war economy is under strain, making sanctions relief an increasingly attractive incentive.

Ukraine’s Unyielding Stance

Zelenskyy and his government reject any territorial concessions, with Ukraine’s constitution prohibiting the cession of land. He has stressed that “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier” and that any sustainable peace requires a full Russian withdrawal. Kyiv’s priorities include:

• Binding U.S.-backed security guarantees.
• Protection from renewed Russian offensives.
• Continued Western military and financial support until Moscow meets withdrawal obligations.

Some analysts believe Zelenskyy could eventually consider limited compromises under extreme pressure, but the prevailing public and political mood in Ukraine is firmly against a “bad peace” that legitimizes Russia’s war gains.

Europe’s Watchful Caution

European leaders have been openly wary of the Alaska talks. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that “no one should think of recognizing Russia’s right to demarcate borders for its neighbors” and urged Trump not to “trust Russia.” NATO capitals fear that a U.S.-Russia arrangement reached without Ukraine’s consent could fracture Western unity and set a precedent undermining international norms on territorial integrity.

Pre-Summit Timeline

• March 2025: Ukraine accepts a U.S.-backed 30-day ceasefire proposal; Russia does not respond.
• May 2025: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accuses Moscow of stalling; Russia intensifies bombing campaigns.
• July 2025: Trump gives Putin a 50-day deadline to agree to a deal, later shortened to 10 days, paired with threats of sanctions and tariffs.
• August 2025 (early): Special envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin; Kremlin announces Alaska summit on eve of deadline.
• August 15, 2025: Trump and Putin meet in Alaska for closed-door talks, with a rare joint press conference planned afterward — their first since the contentious 2018 Helsinki summit.

High Stakes and Risks Ahead

Analysts warn that while both leaders could emerge from Alaska with short-term political gains, the gap between Ukrainian and Russian objectives remains wide. Any arrangement perceived as rewarding aggression could set the stage for future conflict. Former U.S. officials caution that Putin may try to “dazzle” Trump with a proposal designed to weaken U.S.-European alignment, while buying time for Russia to consolidate its gains on the ground.