Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s conditional promise to recognize Palestinian statehood in September has ignited a political firestorm in the UK, raising the stakes for a critical month ahead as he navigates international diplomacy, party unity, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Conditional Recognition Sparks Backlash

Starmer’s announcement—intended to quell criticism over his handling of the Gaza crisis—drew harsh responses from across the political spectrum. While he vowed to recognize Palestine by the United Nations General Assembly in late September unless Israel halts the conflict, he declined to make hostage release by Hamas a condition for recognition. This position was clarified not by Starmer himself, but by Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, who stated, “We don’t put conditions on them because we don’t negotiate with terrorists.”

This asymmetry in conditions—pressuring Israel while sparing Hamas—has exposed Starmer to allegations of “rewarding terrorism” from Israeli officials, the White House, and a British hostage previously held by Hamas.

Political Fallout and Internal Divisions

Privately, UK government advisers expressed concerns that Starmer’s approach risks serious political damage. “This has put Labour in a very difficult position,” said Scarlett Maguire of Merlin Strategy, noting pressure from Starmer’s left flank, as well as threats from former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s new party, which performed well in Gaza-focused campaigns during the last election cycle.

Starmer’s decision coincides with a planned official visit from President Donald Trump, whose influence over UK foreign policy remains significant. Aides say Trump’s muted initial reaction to the pledge helped Starmer proceed—but with the former U.S. president’s stance now hardening, tensions may intensify.

Humanitarian Crisis and Diplomatic Pressure

The UK has stepped up criticism of Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid, citing images of malnourished children in Gaza that have revolted British citizens. Starmer has already suspended certain arms exports and sanctioned senior Israeli officials. With limited diplomatic levers left, aides said the pledge of recognition was seen as a necessary escalation.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza remains dire. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 60,000 people have died since Israel launched its offensive following Hamas’ October 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis and led to 250 hostages being taken.

UK’s Next Moves and Diplomatic Balancing Act

While the UK has yet to confirm who will represent it at the UN General Assembly—possibly Starmer, Deputy PM Angela Rayner, or Foreign Secretary David Lammy—aides suggest recognition is likely. If Starmer announces it himself, it would signal full ownership of the decision to MPs.

Alongside France, Saudi Arabia, and others, the UK is backing a broader peace plan advocating for a demilitarized Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel, based on pre-1967 borders. Success hinges on securing U.S. backing, which remains uncertain.

Critics, including some within Starmer’s team, argue that the recognition debate distracts from urgent measures like pushing for a ceasefire or expanding aid delivery. Whether Starmer proceeds or backs down could define his leadership as Parliament reconvenes and the Labour Party gathers for its annual conference.