Tensions are surging in South Sudan after suspended Vice-President Riek Machar was charged with treason, murder, and crimes against humanity. His SPLM-IO party has called for “regime change,” raising fears that the world’s youngest country could relapse into civil war just years after a fragile peace deal ended a devastating conflict.

Treason Charges Spark Crisis

Authorities placed Machar under house arrest in September, accusing him of plotting rebellion and inciting clashes in Upper Nile state. His allies dismissed the charges as a ploy to dismantle the 2018 peace accord that integrated opposition forces into a unity government. “The prospect for peace and stability has now been put into serious jeopardy,” said SPLM-IO deputy Oyet Nathaniel Pierino.

Fragile Peace Deal Under Strain

The 2018 agreement promised a unified 83,000-strong national army and a hybrid court with AU support, but both remain stalled. Elections have been repeatedly delayed, fueling suspicions that President Salva Kiir seeks to remain in power indefinitely. Analysts warn that unresolved grievances, coupled with proliferating militias, have left the accord dangerously hollow.

Corruption and Oil Revenues

A UN report this week accused South Sudan’s elites of siphoning off over $25 billion in oil revenue since independence, diverting funds meant for health and education into patronage networks. Chair Yasmin Sooka said corruption had become the “engine of South Sudan’s decline.” Juba rejected the findings, blaming war, climate change, and falling crude prices.

Regional and International Stakes

Uganda has reinforced Juba with fresh troops, while IGAD leaders face mounting pressure to salvage the peace process. Observers fear a relapse into conflict could spill across borders, with Sudan’s ongoing war already destabilizing the region. “South Sudan is teetering on the brink of a return to full-scale civil war,” warned UN envoy Nicholas Haysom. Analysts caution that renewed fighting risks turning the country into a battleground for regional proxy wars.