Russia Rewards North Korea, Leaves Iran Empty-Handed

While both Iran and North Korea have supplied military support to Russia during its war in Ukraine, the benefits have not been equal. North Korea has reaped significant strategic and military rewards, while Iran remains isolated and under assault amid escalating conflict with Israel.

Pyongyang Gains as Tehran Bleeds

Russia has leaned on both nations for critical wartime resources—Iran for drones, North Korea for artillery and troops—but only North Korea appears to be gaining real leverage. According to the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s 2025 assessment, North Korea is now in its “strongest strategic position in decades,” bolstered by battlefield experience, advanced Russian weaponry, and oil supplies.

By contrast, Tehran—while continuing to send hundreds of drones to Moscow—has received little in return, even as Israeli airstrikes hammer Iranian infrastructure and leadership. Iran's agreement with Russia lacks a mutual defense clause, unlike Pyongyang's pact with Moscow.

Russia-North Korea Pact Yields Military Boost

Since Kim Jong Un signed a defense pact with Vladimir Putin last year, Moscow has reportedly provided North Korea with modern anti-aircraft missiles, electronic warfare systems, over a million barrels of oil, and food shipments. North Korean troops and engineers have even been deployed to Russia—at least 15,000 soldiers and 6,000 casualties reported in Ukraine’s Kursk region.

Kim has also rejected a new outreach letter from U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling confidence in Pyongyang’s rising position.

Iran’s “Strategic Partnership” Falls Short

Despite high-profile drone support to Russia and previous cooperation in Syria, Iran’s strategic returns have been negligible. Russia’s backing has not translated into protection against Israeli strikes, nor has it helped Tehran diplomatically. Putin’s recent offer to mediate between Iran and Israel appears more self-serving than loyal, aimed at currying favor with Trump rather than aiding Tehran.

Meanwhile, evidence suggests Russian-Iranian drone tech has been passed to North Korea, amplifying Pyongyang’s capabilities even further.

Shifting Regional Balances

As Moscow-Pyongyang ties deepen, regional players are recalibrating. South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, is pushing to resume dialogue with the North, while Trump continues to press Seoul to increase its financial contribution to hosting U.S. troops.

Victor Cha of CSIS warned that any U.S. troop reduction could encourage North Korean aggression: “It could lead to miscalculation,” he said.

With Iran isolated and North Korea emboldened, Russia’s wartime alliances are redrawing power dynamics from the Middle East to East Asia.