Missile Production as Red Line

Israeli officials are preparing to argue that Iran’s ballistic missile program now represents the most immediate strategic threat, outweighing concerns about nuclear enrichment. 

According to officials briefed on the plans, Iran is expanding missile production capacity damaged by Israeli strikes earlier in 2025 and could scale output to as many as 3,000 ballistic missiles per month if left unchecked. 

Israeli strikes in April and October 2024 destroyed all of Iran’s S-300 air defense systems, sharply reducing barriers to follow-on operations.  

While Iran is also believed to be rebuilding nuclear enrichment sites struck by the United States in June 2025, Israeli planners view missile manufacturing facilities and air-defense repair efforts as more urgent. 

A senior source described nuclear reconstitution as “very concerning” but “not that immediate,” underscoring the shift in Israeli threat prioritization.  

“Swift Action” Argument

Netanyahu is expected to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago on Dec. 29, 2025, where he will argue that Iran’s missile expansion threatens not only Israel but broader regional stability and U.S. interests. 

The briefing is expected to include a menu of military options, ranging from unilateral Israeli action to joint or U.S.-led strikes, mirroring the four-option framework presented to Trump before the June operation. 

Ultimately, Trump approved a joint U.S.–Israel strike, which involved more than 100 aircraft, seven B-2 bombers, and a U.S. submarine.  

White House officials maintain that the June campaign, known as Operation Midnight Hammer, “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities, though early assessments suggested uneven damage. 

Direct U.S. involvement was required due to the use of 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs, which Israel does not possess.  

Deterrence Versus Diplomacy

The Israeli push comes as Tehran has signaled interest in resuming diplomatic talks with Washington, potentially complicating renewed military coordination. 

Trump has publicly warned Iran against rebuilding missile or nuclear programs, stating that any attempt to do so without an agreement would again be “obliterated.” 

At the same time, he has hinted at openness to negotiations, introducing uncertainty into Israel’s timing calculus.  

Israeli officials also link missile production to Iran’s ability to defend enrichment sites and to fund regional proxies. 

A larger missile arsenal would improve Tehran’s deterrence posture and accelerate nuclear reconstitution efforts. 

One former Israeli official noted that while Israel can achieve air superiority, missile salvos remain a critical vulnerability that could not be fully intercepted during the last conflict.