Japan Warns Of China’s Rising Military Probing In Region

The white paper details a series of Chinese maneuvers that Tokyo considers destabilizing and unprecedented. Among them are airspace violations, including a Chinese military aircraft that entered Japanese airspace in August last year, and repeated tailing of Japanese planes by Chinese fighter jets. These aerial encounters, coupled with sustained naval deployments, have raised concerns in both political and military circles in Japan.

In June, Tokyo observed—for the first time—two Chinese aircraft carriers operating simultaneously near Japan’s southernmost islands. This rare naval coordination near Japanese territory signals a leap in Beijing’s maritime capabilities and has further strained bilateral ties. A Chinese helicopter also entered the airspace around the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan but claimed by China. These islands remain a persistent source of friction between the two powers.

The white paper notes that such activities reflect an intensifying campaign of “gray-zone” tactics by China—operations that stop short of war but aim to test and challenge Japan’s defense posture. Tokyo fears these tactics could lay the groundwork for escalation or miscalculation, particularly in the context of Taiwan.

Japan Expands Defense Capabilities To Counter Threats

In response to rising threats, Japan is undertaking its largest military buildup in decades. For the current fiscal year, the government has allocated ¥9.9 trillion ($67.3 billion) to defense and related spending—approximately 1.8% of Japan’s GDP in 2022. The aim is to reach 2% by 2027, aligning with NATO standards and reflecting Tokyo’s strategic pivot toward deterrence and readiness.

Recent infrastructure plans include the construction of a bomb shelter on Yonaguni Island, just 110 kilometers from Taiwan’s coastline. The initiative underscores Japan’s fear of being pulled into a Taiwan-related conflict due to geographic proximity and its security alliance with the United States.

The report also highlights growing U.S. pressure for its Indo-Pacific allies to boost military spending. In May, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged nations in the region to target defense budgets closer to 5% of GDP, citing mounting challenges posed by China’s assertive regional posture.

Ultimately, the defense white paper paints a sobering picture of Japan’s strategic environment. It frames Beijing’s activities not merely as provocative, but as part of a systematic effort to shift the regional balance of power. Tokyo's response suggests a firm commitment to deterrence, alliance coordination, and long-term defense investment.