According to Russia’s Defence Ministry, air defence systems shot down nine Ukrainian drones over the Krasnodar region overnight. The resulting debris from one of the downed drones caused a fire at the Afipsky refinery. Though local responders contained the flames, market analysts anticipate the facility may temporarily reduce operations, potentially increasing crude availability for export.

Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, targeting oil refineries, ports, and pumping stations. These strikes aim to weaken Russia’s export capacity and disrupt funding for its war in Ukraine. The Afipsky attack follows similar incidents at the Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk refineries, which suspended operations on several crude distillation units after a drone strike on August 2. Industry sources estimate repairs at those facilities could take a month.

Export Implications And Strategic Adjustments

In response to reduced refining output, Russia plans to increase crude exports from its western ports in August to nearly two million barrels per day—200,000 more than previously expected. The shift reflects Moscow’s attempt to redirect unprocessed oil abroad following strikes that have crippled domestic capacity.

While Kyiv has not provided specific operational details, the Ukrainian military has consistently framed such attacks as part of its asymmetric strategy to erode Russia’s economic and military capabilities. Moscow, for its part, continues to fortify its air defences around key infrastructure sites as it braces for further long-range drone operations.