NATO is preparing for what it calls a critical arms buildup to deter a potential full-scale war with Russia, with Secretary General Mark Rutte warning that Moscow may be capable of launching a military assault on a NATO state within five years. As Russia ramps up production of tanks and missiles, NATO urges allies to dramatically expand their defense budgets and weapons stockpiles to avoid a clash that could spiral into World War III.

In a speech at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, NATO chief Mark Rutte declared: “Because of Russia, war has returned to Europe.” He warned that Moscow’s production of ammunition in three months now exceeds what NATO produces in a year. Rutte advocated a 400% increase in Europe’s air and missile defense systems and proposed that all NATO members spend 5% of their GDP on defense.

Among NATO’s upcoming actions:

• Acquisition of 700 American F-35 fighter jets.
• Mass production of missile systems and drones.
• Investment in space and cyberwarfare capabilities.

Rutte’s goal: to make NATO so formidable that Moscow would never risk an attack on any member state.

Rising Russian Threat

Russia is reportedly on track to produce 1,500 tanks and 200 nuclear-capable Iskander missiles this year. Kremlin rhetoric, paired with Moscow’s growing ties to Iran and North Korea, is raising alarm in Western capitals.

Scholar Spenser Warren from the University of California warned that even a minor miscalculation—such as an airstrike on NATO territory—could trigger a regional or global conflict. He called the Kremlin’s ambitions “serious enough” to warrant rapid European militarization.

Baltic States Seen as Primary Targets

Russia’s expansionist rhetoric has increasingly referenced former Soviet territories. Experts, including Elena Grossfeld from King’s College London, identify the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—as likely first targets. She warned that Russia may test NATO's unity through a swift invasion aimed at creating a "fait accompli" before a full NATO response can be mobilized.

The credibility of U.S. defense commitments will be crucial. If the U.S. appears hesitant, France and Britain could assume leadership in NATO’s European defense posture. Macron has already indicated France’s willingness to extend its nuclear umbrella to other European nations, including Sweden.

France, with 290 active nuclear warheads and 80 more in reserve, is positioning itself as NATO’s continental backbone. As the U.S. shifts focus or possibly retreats from European defense responsibilities, French President Emmanuel Macron has signaled readiness to protect allies under France’s nuclear deterrent.