The Arctic, once seen as a model of cooperation insulated from global rivalries, is losing its dividends of neutrality. The entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, Denmark’s alignment with the EU’s defense framework, and mounting tensions with Russia have fractured scientific collaboration and turned the region into a new frontier of strategic competition. At stake are not only fragile climate change mitigation efforts but also the management of vast mineral and energy reserves critical to Europe’s economic resilience.

From Neutrality to Adversarial Postures

For decades, the Arctic Council allowed Russia and Western states to cooperate on environmental protection and scientific monitoring. Neutrality enabled Finland and Sweden to pursue joint projects with Moscow, such as forestry conservation and marine protection programs, even after Crimea’s annexation in 2014. But Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine froze Arctic Council operations, cutting off access to 17 research stations on Russian territory and leaving major gaps in climate data.

Climate Science in Decline

Key monitoring programs, like INTERACT, lost nearly a third of their Arctic coverage.

Russia’s exclusion has crippled data-sharing on permafrost thaw and greenhouse gas emissions.

Universities in Denmark and Sweden suspended cooperation with Russian institutions, while Russian scientists were banned from European conferences.

The result: climate change in the Arctic—occurring four times faster than the global average—can no longer be adequately measured.

The New Resource Race

Sanctions on Russian oil and gas, coupled with Western decoupling from China, have fueled a surge in Arctic mining and drilling:

Sweden: LKAB aims to become a leading producer of rare earths and minerals. Mining permits rebounded to 751 in 2023 and are set to rise further.

Finland: Expanding gold and multi-metal mining in Lapland, while shelving cross-border infrastructure once envisioned with Russia.

Greenland: After halting Chinese-linked uranium projects in 2021, the island is aligning with the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, with resource extraction tied to independence ambitions.

Environmentalists warn that accelerated extraction risks pollution, spills, and ecological collapse, as seen in recent cyanide and oil spills across the Arctic.

Fishing, once a rare area of cooperation, is now fractured. Greenland banned Russian fishing vessels, while Norway carved out bilateral quota deals with Moscow despite EU sanctions. The 2021 Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement faces collapse, with fears that Russia and China may abandon restrictions and expand industrial fishing fleets.

As neutrality collapses, the Arctic risks becoming less a shared space of stewardship and more a contested arena of great power rivalry. With climate science paralyzed and resource extraction accelerating, the region is drifting from cooperation toward confrontation—its fragile environment and Indigenous communities paying the highest price for geopolitics.