Approximately two and a half years ago, a dozen senior German officers convened at a triangular military facility in Berlin to draft a secret operational plan for a potential war with Russia. Today, the plan is moving from paper to practical exercises, reflecting Germany’s response to the instability unleashed by Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Analysts note that future conflicts will hinge not only on weapons and soldiers but also on logistics, infrastructure, and civil-military coordination.

The 1,200-Page Operational Plan

The classified OPLAN DEU document, prepared at Julius Leber Barracks, details the mobilization of up to 800,000 German, U.S., and NATO troops to the eastern front. It specifies transport routes through ports, rivers, railways, and roads, while mapping supply lines and security measures along the way.

Tim Stuchtey, president of the Brandenburg Institute for Society and Security, explained that natural barriers like the Alps would force NATO troops to traverse Germany in any eastward advance, highlighting the centrality of German logistics in a larger conflict.

The plan also embraces a “whole-of-society” approach, integrating civilian and military sectors, and updating Cold War doctrines to account for modern threats such as aging infrastructure and a smaller army.

Anticipating Russian Action

German officials anticipate that Russia could be ready to strike NATO by 2029, although espionage, sabotage, and airspace violations suggest Moscow may act sooner. Analysts warn that even a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine could free resources for Russian operations against European NATO members.

The plan’s authors argue that increasing Europe’s resilience will not guarantee victory, but it can reduce the likelihood of war by deterring potential aggressors.

“One of the main goals is to clearly show our adversaries that an attack will not succeed,” said a senior officer involved in drafting OPLAN DEU.

Field Exercises Expose Challenges

Recent exercises in rural eastern Germany demonstrated the scale and complexity of the plan. Defense contractor Rheinmetall constructed a temporary overnight field camp for 500 soldiers, including dormitories, showers, fuel stations, a field kitchen, UAV surveillance, and armed guards. The camp was built in 14 days and dismantled in 7.

Marc Lemmermann, head of logistics at Rheinmetall, noted that moving troops across non-contiguous parcels of land exposed weaknesses in terrain and vehicle access. Earlier simulations had identified the need for traffic lights along military convoy routes to avoid congestion. These lessons are continuously incorporated into OPLAN and its annexes, which are now undergoing a second update.

Civilian Infrastructure and Dual-Use Challenges

Germany’s Cold War-era dual-use infrastructure, including autobahns designed for emergency landings and bridges reinforced for military convoys, has degraded. Nearly 20% of highways and a quarter of overpasses require repairs, and Northern and Baltic Sea ports face €15 billion in upgrades to support dual-use operations.

Recent incidents underscore vulnerabilities. In February 2024, the Dutch cargo vessel Rapida collided with a railway bridge over the Hunte River, halting traffic and delaying ammunition shipments to Ukraine via Nordenham port. A similar collision months later caused further disruptions. The incidents prompted NATO intervention, highlighting the fragility of supply chains.

Modern Threats: Sabotage, Cyberattacks, and Legal Constraints

Germany’s plan faces not only physical challenges but also regulatory and technological hurdles. Stringent data protection laws and outdated regulations impede operational flexibility, while sabotage, drone interference, and cyberattacks pose increasing risks.

Paul Strobel of Quantum Systems, which supplies UAVs for military and civilian applications, explained that legal restrictions prevent military drones from flying over urban areas, limiting rapid response capabilities. Despite these challenges, the Bundeswehr expresses confidence in the operational plan’s capabilities.

Simulating Real-World Chaos

Recent exercises in Hamburg, known as “Red Storm Bravo,” tested coordination between military, police, fire, and civil defense units. A convoy of 500 NATO soldiers with 65 vehicles faced simulated protests and UAV attacks. Despite careful planning, a black drone and staged demonstrators created unexpected delays, demonstrating how real-world chaos can disrupt operations.

Officials emphasize that the growing gap between peacetime regulations and wartime requirements necessitates continuous adaptation. Defense Minister Friedrich Merz warned in September, “The threats are real. We are not at war, but we are no longer living in peacetime.”

Conclusion: Preparing for a Complex Future

Germany’s secret war plan reflects a modern approach to deterrence, integrating logistics, infrastructure, civilian sectors, and NATO coordination. While field exercises expose persistent vulnerabilities, officials insist that preparation and adaptability are critical to preventing escalation in Europe. The OPLAN DEU embodies Germany’s effort to confront a new era of security challenges, where the line between peace and conflict is increasingly blurred.