Civilians Flee Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Amid War Fears

Residents of Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region are beginning to flee amid rising fears that fighting could resume between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), nearly four years after a peace agreement ended one of Africa’s most destructive recent conflicts.

Late at night in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, young men carrying backpacks and suitcases have been gathering at bus stations seeking transport to Addis Ababa, reflecting growing anxiety across the region.

The movement of civilians comes as federal troops and Tigrayan forces are mobilizing along their shared border, signaling a potential return to hostilities.

Tigray had a population of about six million people before the war, and although precise figures are unavailable, witnesses say hundreds of residents are leaving the region each day by bus or plane.

The current tensions stem from unresolved issues in the 2022 peace agreement that ended Ethiopia’s two-year civil war. That conflict, which began in November 2020, devastated northern Ethiopia and drew in regional actors including Eritrea, which borders Tigray.

Although the peace deal halted large-scale fighting, many provisions were never fully implemented, leaving relations between the federal government and the TPLF highly volatile. The situation has been further complicated by Ethiopia’s deteriorating relations with Eritrea. As tensions rise, both sides have accused each other of escalating the crisis.

Amanuel Assefa, the second-in-command of the TPLF, said federal forces were advancing toward the region. “The federal troops are advancing from all corners of Ethiopia and I can say that Tigray is being encircled by federal troops,” Assefa said. He added that “the highly likely scenario seems that there will be a conflict.”

Military activity has been reported near several locations in southern Tigray. The town of Chercher, which has around 50,000 residents, lies roughly 150 kilometers south of Mekelle near the borders with the Afar and Amhara regions. Local officials say federal troops have been massing nearby.a street market in Mekelle in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia

According to local administrator Zinabu Gebredhin, the nearest federal army base is 23 kilometers from Chercher, while soldiers are positioned on hills about 10 kilometers away.

Earlier in January, brief fighting broke out in the area, intensifying fears that a broader war could erupt again. Civilian life has already begun to deteriorate.

Markets are increasingly deserted, businesses are struggling and shortages of basic goods are worsening. Economic conditions in Tigray have also deteriorated as tensions escalate.

Federal authorities have cut subsidies to the region for months, leaving many civil servants unpaid and banks facing severe cash shortages.

Fuel prices have surged sharply. Street vendors in Mekelle are selling smuggled petrol, with prices rising from 300 birr to 430 birr - roughly $1.90 to $2.80 - within just a few days.

Residents say the economic strain is adding to fears that conflict could resume. Mahlet Terefe, 23, who sells alcohol and juice in Chercher, said the market has become almost empty as residents prepare for possible war.

“As you can see it’s deserted, there is nobody around,” she said.

Terefe said she briefly fled with her three-year-old son when artillery fire was heard earlier this year. “I want to leave with my boy before war starts. I’m very afraid.”

The Ethiopian federal government has sought to calm concerns, although tensions remain high. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed addressed the issue in a speech delivered partly in Tigrinya, the main language spoken in Tigray. He said he did not want a renewed war but accused the TPLF of refusing compromise. Abiy said the TPLF “wasn’t ready to make even a small compromise.”

For many residents, however, political statements offer little reassurance. Berhan Adhana, 50, who runs a small spice stall in Chercher’s nearly deserted marketplace, said civilians fear another devastating conflict. “War is destructive, it destroys countries. There is nothing we will gain from war.”

The growing exodus from Tigray reflects how fragile the region’s post-war recovery remains as troop movements and political tensions raise the specter of another major conflict in the Horn of Africa.