Following a devastating Israeli campaign that disabled nearly all of Iran’s Russian-supplied S-300 systems, Tehran has reportedly received an undisclosed number of Chinese surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries—possibly HQ-9B or FD-2000B variants—paid for in oil. These deliveries follow Russia’s failure to deliver Su-35 fighter jets that Iran had already paid for, leaving Tehran disillusioned with Moscow’s reliability.

Egypt, too, has opted for the HQ-9B, confirmed by a retired general and corroborated by military analysts. Cairo previously purchased Russia’s S-300VM system and also recently displayed German-made IRIS-T missiles. However, frustrations over Russian supply chain delays and fears of U.S. sanctions appear to have pushed Egypt toward China.

Strategic Shift in Regional Arms Market

The HQ-9B, China’s answer to the Russian S-300/S-400, offers long-range interception and multi-target tracking capabilities. While Algeria continues to purchase advanced Russian weapons such as the S-400, other nations like Morocco have reportedly turned to Chinese FD-2000B systems.

China’s willingness to deliver quickly and without the political baggage of Russian or Western suppliers has made it an increasingly attractive option. Analysts suggest that Beijing may deploy strategic airlifts—such as using Y-20 aircraft—to expedite deliveries, a tactic previously used to transport HQ-22 systems to Serbia.

The switch in buyer preference also reflects deeper strategic calculations. Egypt, for example, canceled a prior Su-35 order over fears of U.S. sanctions and may now be considering China’s J-10C fighter jet instead, marking a broader military realignment.

Russia’s Position in Decline

Beyond logistics and sanctions, battlefield performance has further damaged Russian credibility. Iran's multi-billion-dollar S-300s were neutralized in Israeli airstrikes without a single reported Israeli loss. Meanwhile, Turkey—NATO’s only buyer of Russia’s S-400 system—has kept its batteries in storage and never exercised an option to expand the purchase, signaling regret.

Russia’s withdrawal of S-300s from Syria in 2023, and their subsequent non-use before the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in 2024, further undercuts confidence in their efficacy.

Though some Gulf nations acquired Russian Pantsir-S1s, major buyers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE now favor U.S. and South Korean systems such as THAAD and KM-SAM, respectively. Iraq also explored Russian options but has not followed through.