Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is delivering Moscow its most significant battlefield successes of the year, according to Ukrainian officials and Western analysts. Despite slow advances, Russian forces are achieving steady gains through sheer numbers, heavy firepower, and relentless attacks on multiple fronts from Sumy in the north to Zaporizhzhia in the south.

The offensive, which began gathering momentum in June, has seen Russia capture over 214 square miles of Ukrainian territory, surpassing the gains made in May. Russian troops now control more than two-thirds of the Donetsk region, the epicenter of the ground war. Around Kostiantynivka, Russian forces have created a 10-mile-deep encirclement, putting Ukraine’s defensive positions under increasing pressure. For the first time in over three years, Russian forces have also pushed into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region.

Ukraine’s defence strategy increasingly resembles crisis management, sending experienced, drone-equipped units to plug gaps in the front line — tactics compared to deploying firefighters to contain flare-ups. Still, the relentless assaults are wearing down Ukraine’s outmanned army.

Air War Escalates With Drone Swarms and Missiles

The Kremlin’s military approach extends well beyond the battlefield. Russia has dramatically increased its use of mass-produced drones to target Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Last week alone, Ukraine’s Air Force reported intercepting over 728 drones and decoys. Analysts expect Russia will soon be capable of launching over 1,000 drones in a single wave.

Kyiv bore the brunt of recent bombardments, with intense overnight attacks killing at least two and wounding 25. Russia continues to pair these drone barrages with cruise and ballistic missile strikes. Ukraine’s air defence systems remain robust but strained, relying heavily on U.S.-supplied Patriot missiles for high-end threats.

Moscow’s Goals: Exhaustion Over Speed

Russia’s military goals remain unchanged: destroy Ukraine’s military capacity and force Kyiv to accept Moscow’s terms, including recognition of Russian territorial gains, reduced Ukrainian military capacity, Russian as an official language, and a permanent renunciation of NATO membership. These demands remain categorically unacceptable to Ukraine’s leadership and citizens.

Recent talks in Istanbul marked the first direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv in months, with Russia signalling it will continue its offensive until it secures its objectives.

Economic Toll: War Spending Fuels Deficit and Inflation

While the Russian military gains ground, its economy shows mounting strain. President Vladimir Putin confirmed defence spending has soared to 6.3% of GDP — approximately $172.5 billion — contributing to rampant inflation. The Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates to 20% in a bid to stabilise prices.

Russia’s fiscal health is further threatened by declining oil and gas revenues, down more than 16% amid weakened global energy prices and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The nation’s budget deficit has reached $47 billion in the first half of the year, a situation one Russian economic news outlet described as a “catastrophe.” Although Russia retains over $52 billion in reserves, analysts say the Kremlin must revise its budget priorities to sustain the war beyond 2025.

High Casualties as War of Attrition Grinds On

Russia’s human cost continues to mount. Independent researchers estimate over 115,000 Russian soldiers have died, with nearly one million Russian troops killed or wounded since the invasion began. Current casualty rates suggest each side is losing between 250 and 300 personnel daily.

Despite this, Russia has maintained recruitment through high bonuses and salaries, averaging 30,000 new servicemen each month in 2025. Both sides are entrenched in strategies aimed at long-term endurance, prioritising sustainability over swift victories.

US Role: Uncertainty Amid Policy Shifts

Ukraine’s defence also hinges on international support. The Trump administration has sent mixed signals, pausing and then resuming arms shipments. Washington is now promoting a workaround: NATO countries buying U.S. arms to supply Ukraine indirectly, a move expected to benefit American defence industries while reducing the appearance of direct involvement.

Trump recently affirmed this strategy as the preferred path forward.