Mere days after returning to the White House, President Donald Trump authorized a wave of air strikes in Somalia, targeting ISIL-affiliated fighters. According to US Africa Command (AFRICOM), 43 strikes have already taken place in 2025—more than double last year’s total. These attacks primarily focused on IS-Somalia positions in Puntland, with the remainder directed at al-Shabab fighters.

Trump’s first military action abroad was on February 1, just 10 days into his second term. It was followed by attacks in Yemen, support for Israel's campaigns in Gaza, and strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities—marking a sharp reassertion of US force projection.

Strategic Justifications and Political Spectacle

Analysts argue Trump’s Somalia policy is shaped by two motives: deterrence and demonstration. “By loosening Obama-era restrictions, he enabled a surge in preemptive strikes with minimal vetting or accountability,” said Jethro Norman from the Danish Institute for International Studies. “It was theatrical: a way to perform toughness.”

David Sterman of New America emphasized that the uptick also follows battlefield logic, particularly al-Shabab’s counteroffensive that reversed recent Somali government gains and brought the group closer to Mogadishu.

But the internal conflict within Trump’s administration—between counterterror hawks and those focused on competition with China—has created a policy caught between “spectacle and strategy,” Norman added.

Civilian Impact and Intelligence Shortfalls

Rights groups and watchdogs report significant civilian casualties. Amnesty International has accused the US of “possible war crimes” for civilian deaths during Trump's first term. Despite AFRICOM’s rare admissions of fault, none of the victims or their families have received compensation.

Experts point out that drone strikes often rely on flawed intelligence in rural regions where local dynamics—clan rivalries and fluid loyalties—are overlooked. Between 33 and 167 civilians are believed to have died in US air strikes since 2017.

“The consistent lack of accountability speaks volumes,” said Eva Buzo of Victims Advocacy International. “It reveals a profound lack of transparency and willingness to engage affected communities.”

Armed Group Gains and US Strategy Misfires

Al-Shabab has seized dozens of towns in Hirshabelle and advanced toward Mogadishu, exploiting both the Somali federal government’s weaknesses and US drone strike fallout. Experts say that such offensives show the resilience of the group and that strikes alone cannot uproot them.

“Drone diplomacy would continue to help al-Shabab,” warned Somali analyst Abukar Arman. “The attacks kill civilians and destroy livelihoods. Grievances are quickly harvested by armed groups.”

Sterman noted that “containment” rather than “destruction” is likely the real US goal. Yet, that containment risks failure if it isn’t backed by political legitimacy and development investment.